When Carlos Sainz – a free agent for 2025 thanks to his release by Ferrari to make way for Lewis Hamilton – looks at his options going forwards, a Red Bull drive is the logical standout. Especially so given the doubts that hang over Mercedes and its ongoing difficulties with this regulation set.
Whether Sainz in a Red Bull would be to replace a Max Verstappen who has left or in the seat alongside him, the one currently occupied by Sergio Perez, is a different question.
All these choices have nuances not apparent on paper. The current power battle at Red Bull makes this a complicated question. Central to Horner remaining in his position is his calling the bluff on Verstappen’s threat to leave – which he did quite specifically in Jeddah.
Red Bull should act “now” and make moves to replace Sergio Perez with either Fernando Alonso or Carlos Sainz for the F1 2025 season.
That is the opinion of former F1 driver Ralf Schumacher, who believes there is no time to waste with the driver market currently in “the hot phase.”
Red Bull urged to drop Perez with Fernando Alonso, Carlos Sainz available
Despite an encouraging start to the season, which has seen him finish second to team-mate Max Verstappen in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Perez’s future is uncertain with his current Red Bull contract due to expire at the end of 2024.
Perez claimed ahead of this weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix that it is “just a matter of time” before he begins negotiations over a new deal with Red Bull, insisting both parties are “happy” with each other.
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Horner’s flattering words in Melbourne about Sainz and how attractive a proposition he might be to the team fits very well with that stance of sending a message to the Verstappens, in effect saying: “Carlos in a Red Bull vs Max in a Mercedes. How do you think that might go?”
But let’s suppose it’s more than just Horner using Sainz’s availability as a weapon in his fight for survival. Let’s assume for a moment the interest is genuine and would be sustained even if Verstappen were to stay. Certainly, the uneasy ceasefire in place at Red Bull since parent company senior Oliver Mintzlaff sat down separately with Horner and Helmut Marko on Sunday in Jeddah means neither of them are going anywhere for now. With Marko in place, Verstappen’s reason for leaving – and perhaps his contractual ability to do so – is no longer there.
Amid such a volatile situation all such assumptions are tentative, of course. But could Sainz be a realistic alternative to Sergio Perez alongside Verstappen in 20
One barrier frequently cited to this is how much tension there was around this very same pairing as rookies at Toro Rosso in 2015 to early 2016. Things are different now in so many ways, but some of the dynamics remain relevant – in the opposite direction: ie it may be attractive to Horner precisely because it’s less so to the Verstappens.
Underlying the Toro Rosso dynamics of the time was Marko’s resolute determination to get Max into the Red Bull family and Jos Verstappen’s resistance to that. Ever since 2012, with Max still in karting, Marko had been badgering Jos to bring Max into the Red Bull Junior driver roster.